Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Natalia Silva won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 10, 2025·Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Canada
Style matchupAlexa Grasso: Pressure fightervsNatalia Silva: Elusive striker
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Alexa Grasso wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Natalia Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Natalia Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Natalia Silva has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Natalia Silva (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alexa Grasso
Red Corner
VS
Natalia Silva
Blue Corner
+194
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-235
(70%)
32
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'5"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexa Grasso
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Joanne Wood · Mar 22W
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22W
SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24W
KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26Natalia SilvaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Victoria Leonardo · May 23W
vs Andrea Lee · Aug 23W
vs Viviane Araujo · Feb 24W
vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 24W
vs Rose Namajunas · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexa GrassoMetricNatalia Silva
4.11
Strikes / min
4.81
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.36
58%
Strike defense
66%
0.40
TDs / 15 min
0.43
54%
Takedown defense
90%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.40Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+2.45
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexa GrassoNatalia Silva
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Natalia Silva(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-21.221.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Alexa Grasso
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14
Natalia Silva
StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8