Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Anthony Smith won · SUB R4
UFC Event·Saturday, June 1, 2019·Stockholm, Sweden, Sweden
Model Prediction: Anthony Smith wins(53.4%)
Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Alexander Gustafsson has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Gustafsson
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Smith
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
39
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'4"
200.66 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander GustafssonL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander GustafssonMetricAnthony Smith
4.03
Strikes / min
3.19
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
5.04
51%
Strike defense
44%
1.53
TDs / 15 min
0.44
83%
Takedown defense
50%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50Δ 2.35 — meaningful gap-1.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+8.2-8.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17
Anthony Smith
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights25