Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Gustafsson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 3, 2016·Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, Germany
Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsJan Blachowicz: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Jan Blachowicz wins(56.1%)
Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Gustafsson
Red Corner
VS
Jan Blachowicz
Blue Corner
-700
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+500
(17%)
39
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22Jan Blachowicz
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21W
KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22L
vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23L
vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25D
vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander GustafssonMetricJan Blachowicz
4.03
Strikes / min
3.55
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.14
51%
Strike defense
52%
1.53
TDs / 15 min
0.98
83%
Takedown defense
69%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander GustafssonJan Blachowicz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+43.4-43.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+190.0-190.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17
Jan Blachowicz
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights21