Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Phil Davis won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 10, 2010·Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsPhil Davis: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson wins(63.9%)
Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Phil Davis has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Gustafsson
Red Corner
VS
Phil Davis
Blue Corner
+350
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-440
(81%)
39
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22Phil Davis
oldest →latest
W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14L
vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander GustafssonMetricPhil Davis
4.03
Strikes / min
2.85
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
1.33
51%
Strike defense
72%
1.53
TDs / 15 min
2.99
83%
Takedown defense
72%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander GustafssonPhil Davis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Phil Davis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17
Phil Davis
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11