Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Gustafsson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 14, 2012·Stockholm, Sweden, Sweden
Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsThiago Silva: Elusive striker
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson wins(58.5%)
Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Thiago Silva has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alexander Gustafsson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Gustafsson
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Silva
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
39
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22Thiago SilvaW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Feijao · Jun 13W
vs Matt Hamill · Oct 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander GustafssonMetricThiago Silva
4.03
Strikes / min
3.92
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
51%
Strike defense
67%
1.53
TDs / 15 min
1.03
83%
Takedown defense
70%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander GustafssonThiago Silva
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Thiago Silva(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+49.1-49.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.449.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17
Thiago Silva
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3