Featherweight
3 Rounds
Bill Algeo won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 7, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsBill Algeo: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(51.4%)
Actual result: Bill Algeo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Alexander Hernandez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bill Algeo (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Bill Algeo
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
33
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25Bill AlgeoL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Jul 22L
vs Andre Fili · Sep 22W
SUBvs TJ Brown · Apr 23L
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricBill Algeo
4.23
Strikes / min
5.88
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.38
59%
Strike defense
47%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.03
68%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezBill Algeo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Bill Algeo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.0-15.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Bill Algeo
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10