Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Hernandez won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 13, 2025·San Antonio, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Diego Ferreira wins(55.8%)
Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Alexander Hernandez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Diego Ferreira has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Diego Ferreira
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-118
(54%)
33
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Bill Algeo · Oct 23L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25Diego Ferreira
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · May 21L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21W
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23W
KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24L
vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricDiego Ferreira
4.23
Strikes / min
4.70
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
3.46
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.82
68%
Takedown defense
57%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+1.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezDiego Ferreira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.316.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-210.0210.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Diego Ferreira
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17