Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 19, 2019·Brooklyn, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(54.6%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Alexander Hernandez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
33
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricDonald Cerrone
4.23
Strikes / min
4.41
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
59%
Strike defense
53%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.16
68%
Takedown defense
73%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-99.699.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+105.0-105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.32.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37