Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Alexander Hernandez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander Hernandez
oldest →W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25L
DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26 Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricDonald Cerrone
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alexander HernandezDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +95.6|Blue -95.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.3|Blue +2.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alexander HernandezTargetDonald Cerrone
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Alexander Hernandez rounds
Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:08
36Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:14
Knockdowns0
44Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
