Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Wednesday, May 13, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(59.8%)
Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Drew Dober
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
33
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricDrew Dober
4.23
Strikes / min
4.48
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.33
59%
Strike defense
53%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.61
68%
Takedown defense
58%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezDrew Dober
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-4.44.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+182.0-182.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26