Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Hernandez won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 20, 2019·San Antonio, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(53.4%)
Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Francisco Trinaldo
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
33
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricFrancisco Trinaldo
4.23
Strikes / min
3.13
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
59%
Strike defense
60%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.98
68%
Takedown defense
60%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezFrancisco Trinaldo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-87.687.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26