Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Hernandez won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 15, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Kurt Holobaugh wins(50.4%)
Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Alexander Hernandez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alexander Hernandez has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Kurt Holobaugh
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+168
(37%)
33
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Bill Algeo · Oct 23L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25Kurt Holobaugh
oldest →latest
L
vs Thiago Moises · May 19W
SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23L
vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24W
vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24L
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricKurt Holobaugh
4.23
Strikes / min
4.58
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
59%
Strike defense
49%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.65
68%
Takedown defense
38%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+56.7-56.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Kurt Holobaugh
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9