Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Hernandez won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 2, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsMike Breeden: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(65.6%)
Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Alexander Hernandez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mike Breeden has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Alexander Hernandez has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Mike Breeden
Blue Corner
-675
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+475
(17%)
33
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25Mike Breeden
oldest →latest
L
vs Natan Levy · Apr 22L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Aug 23W
KOvs Anshul Jubli · Oct 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricMike Breeden
4.23
Strikes / min
5.75
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
7.28
59%
Strike defense
42%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.98
68%
Takedown defense
67%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-1.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezMike Breeden
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Mike Breeden(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+33.4-33.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.449.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Mike Breeden
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4