Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Hernandez won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 28, 2018·Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsOlivier Aubin-Mercier: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(54.5%)
Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
33
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25Olivier Aubin-MercierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16W
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17W
KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18L
vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricOlivier Aubin-Mercier
4.23
Strikes / min
2.48
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
2.36
68%
Takedown defense
70%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezOlivier Aubin-Mercier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-61.961.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.22.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12