Lightweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Moises won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, February 27, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(50.6%)
Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Alexander Hernandez has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Moises
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
33
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander HernandezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25Thiago Moises
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricThiago Moises
4.23
Strikes / min
2.52
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.40
59%
Strike defense
52%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.37
68%
Takedown defense
52%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-1.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander HernandezThiago Moises
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.5-26.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Alexander Hernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15