Featherweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, April 12, 2025·Miami, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexander Volkanovski: Well-roundedvsDiego Lopes: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(63.5%)
Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Diego Lopes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Alexander Volkanovski has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Volkanovski
Red Corner
VS
Diego Lopes
Blue Corner
-156
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+132
(43%)
37
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander Volkanovski
oldest →latest
L
vs Islam Makhachev · Feb 23W
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24W
vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26Diego Lopes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Sodiq Yusuff · Apr 24W
vs Dan Ige · Jun 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24W
KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander VolkanovskiMetricDiego Lopes
5.99
Strikes / min
3.83
3.31
Strikes absorbed / min
4.56
58%
Strike defense
45%
1.63
TDs / 15 min
0.88
68%
Takedown defense
68%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.68Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap-0.73
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander VolkanovskiDiego Lopes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)Diego Lopes(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+73.4-73.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+210.0-210.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Alexander Volkanovski
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18
Diego Lopes
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights9