Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Tom Aspinall won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupAlexander Volkov: Well-roundedvsTom Aspinall: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Alexander Volkov wins(53.0%)
Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Volkov is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alexander Volkov
Red Corner
VS
Tom Aspinall
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
37
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'7"
Height
6'5"
203.2 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander Volkov
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Mar 23W
SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23W
vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24W
vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander VolkovMetricTom Aspinall
4.84
Strikes / min
7.63
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
54%
Strike defense
56%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
2.62
68%
Takedown defense
100%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.94Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap+4.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexander VolkovTom Aspinall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Volkov(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+7.6-7.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Alexander Volkov
StanceOrthodox
Height79.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights17
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10