Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alexandr Romanov won · S-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, April 17, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexandr Romanov: WrestlervsJuan Espino: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Alexandr Romanov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Juan Espino threatens submissions; Alexandr Romanov has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Alexandr Romanov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Juan Espino has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Juan Espino has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alexandr Romanov
Red Corner
VS
Juan Espino
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
35
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
N/A
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexandr Romanov
oldest →latest
L
vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23W
vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24W
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24Juan EspinoW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Justin Frazier · Nov 18W
SUBvs Jeff Hughes · Sep 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexandr RomanovMetricJuan Espino
3.78
Strikes / min
2.38
2.13
Strikes absorbed / min
1.95
54%
Strike defense
40%
4.49
TDs / 15 min
8.93
28%
Takedown defense
50%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
2.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.65Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap+0.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexandr RomanovJuan Espino
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Juan Espino(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Alexandr Romanov
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10
Juan Espino
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights3