Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alexandr Romanov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 2, 2024·Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Style matchupAlexandr Romanov: WrestlervsRodrigo Nascimento: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Alexandr Romanov wins(59.0%)
Actual result: Alexandr Romanov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexandr Romanov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rodrigo Nascimento has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).
- Rodrigo Nascimento has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alexandr Romanov
Red Corner
VS
Rodrigo Nascimento
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
35
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexandr Romanov
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Apr 22L
vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23W
vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24Rodrigo Nascimento
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alan Baudot · Jul 21W
vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22W
vs Ilir Latifi · May 23W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexandr RomanovMetricRodrigo Nascimento
3.78
Strikes / min
3.71
2.13
Strikes absorbed / min
4.34
54%
Strike defense
44%
4.49
TDs / 15 min
1.02
28%
Takedown defense
60%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.65Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-0.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexandr RomanovRodrigo Nascimento
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-6.66.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Alexandr Romanov
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10
Rodrigo Nascimento
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights8