Flyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Alexandre Pantoja won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 7, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(81.7%)
Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexandre Pantoja has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alexandre Pantoja
Red Corner
VS
Kai Asakura
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
36
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexandre Pantoja
oldest →latest
W
vs Brandon Moreno · Jul 23W
vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23W
vs Steve Erceg · May 24W
SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25L
KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25Kai Asakura
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Tim Elliott · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexandre PantojaMetricKai Asakura
4.38
Strikes / min
2.27
3.88
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
49%
Strike defense
52%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
0.00
69%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-1.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexandre PantojaKai Asakura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Kai Asakura(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+129.3-129.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.548.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Alexandre Pantoja
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18
Kai Asakura
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2