Flyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Alexandre Pantoja won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 28, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsKai Kara-France: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(74.2%)
Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kai Kara-France has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Alexandre Pantoja
Red Corner
VS
Kai Kara-France
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
36
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'4"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexandre Pantoja
oldest →latest
W
vs Brandon Moreno · Jul 23W
vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23W
vs Steve Erceg · May 24W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24L
KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25Kai Kara-France
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 21W
vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22L
KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22L
vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23W
KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexandre PantojaMetricKai Kara-France
4.38
Strikes / min
4.46
3.88
Strikes absorbed / min
3.24
49%
Strike defense
64%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
0.56
69%
Takedown defense
83%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.22
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexandre PantojaKai Kara-France
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Kai Kara-France(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+81.1-81.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Alexandre Pantoja
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18
Kai Kara-France
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights11