Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Alexia Thainara won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 28, 2026·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupAlexia Thainara: WrestlervsBruna Brasil: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Alexia Thainara wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Alexia Thainara wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexia Thainara has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alexia Thainara
Red Corner
VS
Bruna Brasil
Blue Corner
-480
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+330
(23%)
30
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexia ThainaraW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Molly McCann · Mar 25W
vs Loma Lookboonmee · Sep 25Bruna BrasilL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Shauna Bannon · Jul 23L
vs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 24W
vs Molly McCann · Jul 24L
vs Wang Cong · Feb 25L
vs Ketlen Souza · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexia ThainaraMetricBruna Brasil
4.62
Strikes / min
2.56
2.46
Strikes absorbed / min
3.75
59%
Strike defense
52%
4.54
TDs / 15 min
1.23
100%
Takedown defense
57%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.16Δ 3.35 — meaningful gap-1.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alexia ThainaraBruna Brasil
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexia Thainara(3 fights)Bruna Brasil(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+63.2-63.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.7-1.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Alexia Thainara
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3
Bruna Brasil
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7