Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Ali Bagautinov has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ali BagautinovL3 streak
oldest →W
vs John Lineker · Feb 14L
vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16 Geane Herrera
oldest →W
KOvs Joby Sanchez · Dec 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ali BagautinovMetricGeane Herrera
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.24Δ 3.32 — meaningful gap-3.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ali BagautinovGeane Herrera
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)Geane Herrera(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +132.2|Blue -132.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +69.0|Blue -69.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ali BagautinovTargetGeane Herrera
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns1
Control2:43
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns2
Control3:32
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:40Control
Round 3Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns2
Control2:11
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
