Flyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Joseph Morales won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, August 16, 2025·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupAlibi Idiris: WrestlervsJoseph Morales: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Alibi Idiris wins(70.2%)
Actual result: Joseph Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alibi Idiris has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Morales (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Alibi Idiris
Red Corner
VS
Joseph Morales
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+385
(21%)
31
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'6"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alibi Idiris
oldest →latest
W
vs Ode Osbourne · Feb 26Joseph Morales
oldest →latest
W
vs Roberto Sanchez · Aug 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 18L
vs Eric Shelton · Nov 18W
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alibi IdirisMetricJoseph Morales
2.51
Strikes / min
2.00
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.05
60%
Strike defense
57%
3.25
TDs / 15 min
1.14
66%
Takedown defense
26%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
3.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alibi IdirisJoseph Morales
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alibi Idiris(2 fights)Joseph Morales(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.3-17.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.4-49.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.9-49.9
Alibi Idiris
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2
Joseph Morales
StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5