Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 20, 2019·Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia, Russia
Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsAleksei Oleinik: Submission grappler
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(56.9%)
Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alistair Overeem has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Aleksei Oleinik
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
46
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
203.2 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alistair Overeem
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 18L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21Aleksei Oleinik
oldest →latest
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20L
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21L
vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21W
SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22L
vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alistair OvereemMetricAleksei Oleinik
3.67
Strikes / min
3.29
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.80
57%
Strike defense
44%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
1.82
73%
Takedown defense
37%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.51
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alistair OvereemAleksei Oleinik
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.82.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Alistair Overeem
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20
Aleksei Oleinik
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights17