Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, September 5, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsAugusto Sakai: Pressure fighter
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(68.8%)
Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Augusto Sakai has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Augusto Sakai
Blue Corner
-159
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
46
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
203.2 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alistair Overeem
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 18W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21Augusto Sakai
oldest →latest
W
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 20L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21L
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 22W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alistair OvereemMetricAugusto Sakai
3.67
Strikes / min
4.60
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.83
57%
Strike defense
48%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.23
73%
Takedown defense
56%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23evenly matched on net striking+0.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Augusto Sakai(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+9.2-9.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Alistair Overeem
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20
Augusto Sakai
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9