Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 2, 2017·Detroit, Michigan, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(52.6%)
Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Francis Ngannou
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
46
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
210.82 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alistair Overeem
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alistair OvereemMetricFrancis Ngannou
3.67
Strikes / min
2.33
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
57%
Strike defense
41%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.76
73%
Takedown defense
71%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+0.17
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alistair OvereemFrancis Ngannou
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Francis Ngannou(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-161.0161.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Alistair Overeem
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20
Francis Ngannou
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14