Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 24, 2018·Beijing, China, China
Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fighter
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(56.1%)
Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Sergei Pavlovich
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
46
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'3"
203.2 cm
Reach
213.36 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alistair Overeem
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21Sergei PavlovichW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alistair OvereemMetricSergei Pavlovich
3.67
Strikes / min
4.43
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
57%
Strike defense
55%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.48
73%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23evenly matched on net striking+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alistair OvereemSergei Pavlovich
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.9-35.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.847.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.949.9
Alistair Overeem
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20
Sergei Pavlovich
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights11