Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 13, 2014·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsStefan Struve: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
- Stefan Struve is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alistair Overeem has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stefan Struve has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Stefan Struve
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
46
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'11"
203.2 cm
Reach
213.36 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alistair Overeem
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21Stefan StruveL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18L
vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18W
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alistair OvereemMetricStefan Struve
3.67
Strikes / min
3.12
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
4.04
57%
Strike defense
46%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.56
73%
Takedown defense
55%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-0.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alistair OvereemStefan Struve
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Stefan Struve(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-51.451.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-552.0552.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Alistair Overeem
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20
Stefan Struve
StanceOrthodox
Height83.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights20