Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bryan Caraway won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Sunday, May 29, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsBryan Caraway: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(78.1%)
Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Caraway has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Aljamain Sterling
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Caraway
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
36
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aljamain Sterling
oldest →latest
W
vs Henry Cejudo · May 23L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 14L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aljamain SterlingMetricBryan Caraway
4.26
Strikes / min
2.53
2.15
Strikes absorbed / min
3.61
59%
Strike defense
54%
2.54
TDs / 15 min
2.57
44%
Takedown defense
80%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.11Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap-1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Aljamain SterlingBryan Caraway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.8-16.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-138.0138.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Aljamain Sterling
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights22
Bryan Caraway
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10