Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Allan Nascimento won · SUB R2
AN
CD
Allan NascimentovsCody Durden
UFC Event · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAllan Nascimento: Submission grapplervsCody Durden: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Allan Nascimento wins(58.6%)
Actual result: Allan Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Allan Nascimento enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Cody Durden enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Allan Nascimento threatens submissions; Cody Durden has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Cody Durden has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cody Durden (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Allan Nascimento
Red Corner
VS
Cody Durden
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
34
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Allan NascimentoW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21W
vs Jake Hadley · May 22W
SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23W
vs Jafel Filho · May 25Cody DurdenL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Bruno Silva · Jul 24W
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Sep 24L
vs Joshua Van · Dec 24L
KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25L
vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Allan NascimentoMetricCody Durden
3.06
Strikes / min
3.24
2.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.94
52%
Strike defense
50%
1.26
TDs / 15 min
3.99
37%
Takedown defense
56%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Allan NascimentoCody Durden
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Allan Nascimento(5 fights)Cody Durden(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+39.7-39.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Allan Nascimento
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5
Cody Durden
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights14