Flyweight
3 Rounds
Louis Smolka won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Wednesday, January 15, 2014·Duluth, Georgia, USA, USA
Style matchupAlptekin Ozkilic: WrestlervsLouis Smolka: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Alptekin Ozkilic wins(58.5%)
Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alptekin Ozkilic has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Alptekin Ozkilic has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alptekin Ozkilic
Red Corner
VS
Louis Smolka
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+248
(29%)
40
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'9"
165.1 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alptekin OzkilicL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Darren Uyenoyama · Dec 13L
KOvs John Lineker · Jul 14L
KOvs Ben Nguyen · May 15Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alptekin OzkilicMetricLouis Smolka
3.81
Strikes / min
4.67
5.72
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
59%
Strike defense
53%
4.21
TDs / 15 min
1.69
75%
Takedown defense
32%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.91Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alptekin OzkilicLouis Smolka
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alptekin Ozkilic(4 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.7-16.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Alptekin Ozkilic
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17