Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Amanda Lemos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 17, 2024·Anaheim, California, USA, USA
Style matchupAmanda Lemos: Well-roundedvsMackenzie Dern: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Amanda Lemos wins(58.2%)
Actual result: Amanda Lemos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Mackenzie Dern threatens submissions; Amanda Lemos has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Amanda Lemos has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Amanda Lemos
Red Corner
VS
Mackenzie Dern
Blue Corner
-162
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+136
(42%)
38
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Amanda LemosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Zhang Weili · Aug 23L
SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24W
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25L
vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25L
vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26Mackenzie DernW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Angela Hill · May 23L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Amanda LemosMetricMackenzie Dern
2.75
Strikes / min
3.47
3.01
Strikes absorbed / min
3.93
45%
Strike defense
51%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
0.93
63%
Takedown defense
37%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Amanda LemosMackenzie Dern
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Amanda Lemos(10 fights)Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+11.5-11.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Amanda Lemos
StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15
Mackenzie Dern
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16