Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 28, 2017·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Andrei Arlovski has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francis Ngannou has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Andrei Arlovski
Red Corner
VS
Francis Ngannou
Blue Corner
+335
(23%)
Vegas Odds
-420
(81%)
47
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
210.82 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andrei ArlovskiMetricFrancis Ngannou
3.82
Strikes / min
2.33
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
57%
Strike defense
41%
0.37
TDs / 15 min
0.76
76%
Takedown defense
71%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.17
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Andrei ArlovskiFrancis Ngannou
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Francis Ngannou(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-37.237.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+97.0-97.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Andrei Arlovski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights27
Francis Ngannou
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14