Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Josh Barnett won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 3, 2016·Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, Germany
Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsJosh Barnett: Submission grappler
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Josh Barnett wins(55.7%)
Actual result: Josh Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Andrei Arlovski has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Andrei Arlovski
Red Corner
VS
Josh Barnett
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
47
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24Josh Barnett
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Frank Mir · Aug 13L
KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 13W
vs Roy Nelson · Sep 15L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andrei ArlovskiMetricJosh Barnett
3.82
Strikes / min
3.20
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
2.11
57%
Strike defense
57%
0.37
TDs / 15 min
1.26
76%
Takedown defense
55%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.60evenly matched on net striking+1.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Andrei ArlovskiJosh Barnett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Josh Barnett(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+25.9-25.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-99.099.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Andrei Arlovski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights27
Josh Barnett
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5