Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 29, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(51.2%)
Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Andrei Arlovski has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Andrei Arlovski
Red Corner
VS
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
47
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andrei ArlovskiL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jared Vanderaa · Feb 22W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24Marcos Rogerio de Lima
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Nov 21L
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22W
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23W
KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andrei ArlovskiMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima
3.82
Strikes / min
3.70
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
57%
Strike defense
51%
0.37
TDs / 15 min
1.40
76%
Takedown defense
59%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Andrei ArlovskiMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+38.0-38.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Andrei Arlovski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights27
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17