Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tom Aspinall won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, February 20, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsTom Aspinall: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(55.9%)
Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tom Aspinall has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Andrei Arlovski
Red Corner
VS
Tom Aspinall
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
47
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
195.58 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andrei ArlovskiMetricTom Aspinall
3.82
Strikes / min
7.63
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.37
TDs / 15 min
2.62
76%
Takedown defense
100%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.60Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap+4.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Andrei ArlovskiTom Aspinall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.815.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Andrei Arlovski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights27
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10