Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
5 Rounds
Tomorrow
Elo1530
Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration
Elo1548
Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Anthony HernandezvsGregory RodriguesUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, August 22, 2026Sacramento, USA

Fight begins in
Style matchupAnthony Hernandez: WrestlervsGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Fight Detective pick

We select Gregory Rodrigues to win. Informational only—not a guarantee or betting advice.

Market-implied probability
Gregory Rodrigues
38.9% market-implied
vs Anthony Hernandez (61.1%)
Model estimate
Gregory Rodrigues
50.9% model estimate
Internal research signal — not a betting edge.
Market odds
Anthony Hernandez-178 (64.0%)
Gregory Rodrigues+145 (40.8%)

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Gregory Rodrigues is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Anthony Hernandez has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Gregory Rodrigues
Blue Corner
-178
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1530
Elo
1548
32
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Hernandez
oldest →
W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24
W
KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24
W
vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25
W
SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25
L
KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26
latest
Gregory RodriguesW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24
L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25
W
KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25
W
vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25
W
KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HernandezMetricGregory Rodrigues
4.57
Strikes / min
5.53
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
4.78
51%
Strike defense
50%
5.88
TDs / 15 min
1.90
68%
Takedown defense
75%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.47evenly matched on net striking+0.75
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -18.2|Blue +18.2
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO72%

Historical win share: Gregory Rodrigues earned 70% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission28%

Historical win share: Anthony Hernandez earned 56% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Anthony Hernandez
Odds
-178

Market-implied probability

Gregory Rodrigues 39%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Anthony Hernandez$156
Gregory Rodrigues (model pick · research)$245

39% market-implied · model 51% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Checking bet tracker…

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights13