Welterweight
3 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 17, 2019·Anaheim, California, USA, USA
Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsNate Diaz: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(58.7%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Anthony Pettis has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
- Nate Diaz has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Anthony Pettis
Red Corner
VS
Nate Diaz
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
39
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Anthony PettisW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 18W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20W
vs Donald Cerrone · May 20W
vs Alex Morono · Dec 20Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Anthony PettisMetricNate Diaz
3.05
Strikes / min
4.57
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
54%
Strike defense
52%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
1.05
60%
Takedown defense
41%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.39Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Anthony PettisNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+21.9-21.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-945.0945.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Anthony Pettis
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18