Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Casey O'Neill won · KO/TKO R2
AS
CO
Antonina ShevchenkovsCasey O'Neill
UFC Event · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Antonina Shevchenko wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Casey O'Neill has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Antonina Shevchenko (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Antonina Shevchenko
Red Corner
VS
Casey O'Neill
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
41
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Antonina Shevchenko
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lucie Pudilova · Aug 19L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · May 20W
KOvs Ariane Lipski · Nov 20L
SUBvs Andrea Lee · May 21W
vs Cortney Casey · Jul 22Casey O'NeillW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22L
vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23L
SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23W
vs Luana Santos · Aug 24W
KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Antonina ShevchenkoMetricCasey O'Neill
3.86
Strikes / min
7.89
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
5.53
52%
Strike defense
57%
0.43
TDs / 15 min
1.40
53%
Takedown defense
70%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.93Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+2.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Antonina ShevchenkoCasey O'Neill
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Antonina Shevchenko(8 fights)Casey O'Neill(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-32.032.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Antonina Shevchenko
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights8
Casey O'Neill
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8