Middleweight
3 Rounds
Antonio Carlos Junior won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 28, 2017·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Antonio Carlos Junior wins(56.4%)
Actual result: Antonio Carlos Junior wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Antonio Carlos Junior threatens submissions; Jack Marshman has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Antonio Carlos Junior has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Antonio Carlos Junior has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Antonio Carlos Junior
Red Corner
VS
Jack Marshman
Blue Corner
-370
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+330
(23%)
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 16W
SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18L
vs Ian Heinisch · May 19L
vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19L
vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21Jack MarshmanL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ryan Janes · Jul 17L
vs Karl Roberson · Nov 18W
vs John Phillips · Mar 19L
SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jul 19L
vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Antonio Carlos JuniorMetricJack Marshman
1.95
Strikes / min
2.74
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
4.19
52%
Strike defense
56%
3.42
TDs / 15 min
0.00
53%
Takedown defense
20%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.19Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-1.45
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Antonio Carlos JuniorJack Marshman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)Jack Marshman(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.1-13.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+198.0-198.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Antonio Carlos Junior
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11
Jack Marshman
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8