Featherweight
3 Rounds
Antonio Carvalho won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 21, 2012·Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Style matchupAntonio Carvalho: StrikervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Antonio Carvalho wins(54.3%)
Actual result: Antonio Carvalho wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Antonio Carvalho has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Antonio Carvalho has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Antonio Carvalho
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Pineda
Blue Corner
+235
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-255
(72%)
46
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Antonio Carvalho
oldest →latest
L
vs Felipe Arantes · Jan 12W
vs Rodrigo Damm · Nov 12L
KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 13Daniel PinedaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20W
SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23L
vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Antonio CarvalhoMetricDaniel Pineda
3.03
Strikes / min
2.85
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
64%
Strike defense
45%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.42
100%
Takedown defense
54%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59evenly matched on net striking-0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Antonio CarvalhoDaniel Pineda
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Antonio Carvalho(4 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-30.630.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Antonio Carvalho
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4
Daniel Pineda
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13