Featherweight
3 Rounds
Darren Elkins won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 16, 2013·Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Canada
Style matchupAntonio Carvalho: StrikervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(50.3%)
Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Antonio Carvalho has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Antonio Carvalho has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Antonio Carvalho
Red Corner
VS
Darren Elkins
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
46
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Antonio CarvalhoW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Felipe Arantes · Jan 12W
KOvs Daniel Pineda · Jul 12W
vs Rodrigo Damm · Nov 12Darren Elkins
oldest →latest
W
vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22W
SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Antonio CarvalhoMetricDarren Elkins
3.03
Strikes / min
3.40
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
64%
Strike defense
51%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.87
100%
Takedown defense
56%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59evenly matched on net striking+0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Antonio CarvalhoDarren Elkins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Antonio Carvalho(4 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-44.444.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Antonio Carvalho
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4
Darren Elkins
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights30