Lightweight
3 Rounds
Arman Tsarukyan won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 26, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan wins(53.0%)
Actual result: Arman Tsarukyan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Arman Tsarukyan has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Joel Alvarez has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Arman Tsarukyan
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
29
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Arman TsarukyanW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22W
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23W
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23W
vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24W
SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25Joel AlvarezW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Thiago Moises · Nov 21W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Arman TsarukyanMetricJoel Alvarez
3.85
Strikes / min
4.53
1.80
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
54%
Strike defense
53%
3.26
TDs / 15 min
0.18
75%
Takedown defense
46%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.05evenly matched on net striking+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Arman TsarukyanJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-9.79.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Arman Tsarukyan
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10