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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · SUB R3

Elo1511

Elo1491

Arnold AllenvsMads BurnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · Sunday, May 27, 2018Liverpool, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:41

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsMads Burnell: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Arnold Allen wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arnold Allen at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arnold Allen has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Mads Burnell

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1511

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Mads Burnell

oldest →

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Sep 17

vs Mike Santiago · Jan 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricMads Burnell

3.47

Strikes / min

1.28

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.71

60%

Strike defense

51%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

3.45

71%

Takedown defense

22%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap-1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenMads Burnell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Mads Burnell(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +302.0|Blue -302.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetMads Burnell

By target zone

28% acc · 72%

Head

28% acc · 65%

57% acc · 28%

Body

75% acc · 15%

Leg

67% acc · 20%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 80%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

43% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Mads Burnell rounds

Round 1Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:06

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Mads Burnell edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:10Control

Round 3Mads Burnell edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:03

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:13Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 90

Sig Strikes

20 / 56

23.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

38 / 101

Total Strikes

70 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 12

—

TD %

55%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

7:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mads Burnell	14 / 37	23 / 52	1 / 4	0
1	Arnold Allen	27 / 71	30 / 75	0 / 0	0
2	Mads Burnell	4 / 13	38 / 54	3 / 3	0
2	Arnold Allen	0 / 13	6 / 20	0 / 0	0
3	Mads Burnell	2 / 6	9 / 14	2 / 5	0
3	Arnold Allen	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	1

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Mads Burnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3