Welterweight
3 Rounds
Ian Machado Garry won · U-DEC R3
BM
IG
Belal MuhammadvsIan Machado Garry
UFC Event · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar, Qatar
Style matchupBelal Muhammad: WrestlervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(56.9%)
Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Belal Muhammad
Red Corner
VS
Ian Machado Garry
Blue Corner
+235
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-290
(74%)
37
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Belal Muhammad
oldest →latest
W
vs Vicente Luque · Apr 22W
KOvs Sean Brady · Oct 22W
vs Gilbert Burns · May 23W
vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24L
vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25Ian Machado Garry
oldest →latest
W
vs Neil Magny · Aug 23W
vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Belal MuhammadMetricIan Machado Garry
4.43
Strikes / min
4.78
3.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.86
55%
Strike defense
52%
2.14
TDs / 15 min
0.92
90%
Takedown defense
80%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+1.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Belal MuhammadIan Machado Garry
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+89.9-89.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Belal Muhammad
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20
Ian Machado Garry
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8