Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bia Mesquita won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 11, 2025·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Bia Mesquita wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Bia Mesquita wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bia Mesquita threatens submissions; Irina Alekseeva has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Bia Mesquita has 35pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Irina Alekseeva has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Bia Mesquita
Red Corner
VS
Irina Alekseeva
Blue Corner
-600
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bia Mesquita
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Montse Rendon · Mar 26Irina AlekseevaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Stephanie Egger · Apr 23L
vs Melissa Mullins · Oct 23L
vs Klaudia Sygula · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bia MesquitaMetricIrina Alekseeva
5.78
Strikes / min
3.42
0.64
Strikes absorbed / min
5.02
80%
Strike defense
45%
4.81
TDs / 15 min
0.38
0%
Takedown defense
50%
3.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+5.14Δ 6.74 — meaningful gap-1.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bia MesquitaIrina Alekseeva
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bia Mesquita(2 fights)Irina Alekseeva(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.7-16.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Bia Mesquita
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights2
Irina Alekseeva
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4