Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bia Mesquita threatens submissions; Melissa Mullins has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Bia Mesquita has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Melissa Mullins has 85pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bia MesquitaW2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Irina Alekseeva · Oct 25W
SUBvs Montse Rendon · Mar 26 Melissa Mullins
oldest →W
vs Irina Alekseeva · Oct 23L
KOvs Nora Cornolle · Apr 24W
KOvs Klaudia Sygula · Nov 24L
vs Daria Zhelezniakova · Jun 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bia MesquitaMetricMelissa Mullins
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+5.14Δ 5.82 — meaningful gap-0.68
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bia Mesquita(3 fights)Melissa Mullins(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +97.1|Blue -97.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -266.0|Blue +266.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bia MesquitaTargetMelissa Mullins
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Melissa Mullins edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:12
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:27Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
