Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bia Mesquita won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 14, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupBia Mesquita: WrestlervsMontse Rendon: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Bia Mesquita wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Bia Mesquita wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bia Mesquita has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Montse Rendon has 85pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Bia Mesquita
Red Corner
VS
Montse Rendon
Blue Corner
-750
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+530
(16%)
35
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bia Mesquita
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Irina Alekseeva · Oct 25Montse Rendon
oldest →latest
W
vs Alice Pereira · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bia MesquitaMetricMontse Rendon
5.78
Strikes / min
2.95
0.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
80%
Strike defense
57%
4.81
TDs / 15 min
1.91
0%
Takedown defense
85%
3.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+5.14Δ 5.84 — meaningful gap-0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bia MesquitaMontse Rendon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bia Mesquita(2 fights)Montse Rendon(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.80.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
Bia Mesquita
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights2
Montse Rendon
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2