Featherweight
3 Rounds
Kyle Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 30, 2024·Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupBill Algeo: Pressure fightervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(75.4%)
Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Tale of the Tape
Bill Algeo
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Nelson
Blue Corner
-298
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
36
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bill Algeo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Jul 22L
vs Andre Fili · Sep 22W
SUBvs TJ Brown · Apr 23W
vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 23L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bill AlgeoMetricKyle Nelson
5.88
Strikes / min
3.60
4.38
Strikes absorbed / min
4.58
47%
Strike defense
53%
1.03
TDs / 15 min
1.18
55%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.50Δ 2.48 — meaningful gap-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bill AlgeoKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bill Algeo(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+48.9-48.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Bill Algeo
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11