Featherweight
3 Rounds
Bill Algeo won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, April 15, 2023·Kansas City, Missouri, USA, USA
Style matchupBill Algeo: Pressure fightervsTJ Brown: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(58.5%)
Actual result: Bill Algeo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bill Algeo has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Bill Algeo
Red Corner
VS
TJ Brown
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+168
(37%)
36
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bill AlgeoL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Jul 22L
vs Andre Fili · Sep 22W
vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 23L
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24TJ Brown
oldest →latest
W
vs Kai Kamaka · May 21W
vs Charles Rosa · Jan 22L
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22W
SUBvs Erik Silva · Dec 22L
SUBvs Darren Elkins · Oct 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bill AlgeoMetricTJ Brown
5.88
Strikes / min
3.37
4.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.89
47%
Strike defense
49%
1.03
TDs / 15 min
3.41
55%
Takedown defense
36%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.50Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Bill AlgeoTJ Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bill Algeo(10 fights)TJ Brown(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.1-2.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Bill Algeo
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10
TJ Brown
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8